Black Shoulder (Dumfries and Galloway) weather

Headline:

Heavy, and some thundery, showers today. Sunny in west later.

Today:

Heavy showers this morning will become confined to the east into the afternoon with the risk of thunder. Prolonged sunshine in the west for the rest of the afternoon. Maximum temperature 20 °C.

Tonight:

Heavy showers in the east dying out through the evening, late sunshine in the west. Prolonged clear spells across the region through the second half of the night. Minimum temperature 10 °C.

Wednesday:

A sunny start to the day on Wednesday. Patchy cloud and a few light showers developing through the morning. Dry and bright to end the day. Maximum temperature 21 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Chance of a few outbreaks of rain Thursday morning, mainly dry and bright into the afternoon. Mostly dry Friday with patchy cloud. Rain pushing eastwards Saturday, heavy for a time.

Early in this period, low pressure is likely to exist to the northwest or north of the UK, allowing areas of cloud and rain to spread across the UK from the west, though some more settled interludes are also likely, especially in the southeast. Breezy at times, with temperatures mainly near or below normal. Remaining changeable thereafter as weather systems to move across the country from the west, with northern and western areas typically wettest and a greater chance of dry conditions prevailing in the southeast. There is, however, a smaller chance for either unsettled weather to be more widely prevalent, or for a more quiescent period to develop across the south. Overall, temperatures will likely be near normal, but may feel cool in the west at times.

Through this period, there remains a slightly increased chance of more settled spells of weather developing at times, particularly in the south, and the likelihood of this has been gradually increasing over the past few days. However, there is still a substantial chance of other outcomes too, with more changeable periods also likely. Overall drier than average conditions are more likely than wetter than average, and warmer than average conditions are weakly favoured too.