Research to Operations: Convective-scale Numerical Weather Prediction

In high-resolution limited-area models, the focus is on local and surface conditions. Data assimilation and model development for the UK models is aimed at improving forecasts of key weather elements such as rain, cloud, visibility, 2-metre temperature and 10-metre wind.  

Key aims

Coordination and delivery of upgrades to regional Numerical Weather Prediction suites through the Parallel Suite process. Development of NWP systems for the 1.5km UKV model, the 2.2km MOGREPS-UK ensemble and convective-scale models in other parts of the globe.

Current projects

  • Introduce information from the global model into regional data assimilation systems to improve the analysis of large scales in the limited-area domain.
  • Improve the degree of spread amongst members in the MOGREPS-UK ensemble.
  • Develop a hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation system for the UKV model.
  • Develop integrated research suites for testing and evaluating improvements to both deterministic and ensemble model systems.
  • Develop NWP forecast systems including data assimilation under the auspices of WCSSP-Southeast Asia