The future of energy is weather – what must the sector do to manage the extremes?

A resilient pathway is essential to meet net zero emissions 

It’s no secret that the UK energy mix is becoming heavily reliant on the weather. We are moving from primarily fossil fuel driven energy generation to a greater use of renewable technology. This decarbonisation of the energy sector (known as the ‘energy transition’) is a vital piece of the puzzle in meeting our commitments to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar power have a very clear link to the weather – if the wind does not blow, or the sun is obscured by clouds, then power is not produced. This highlights one way in which our future use of energy is intrinsically linked to our ability to predict the weather – forecasting generation from renewables is critical for our energy system operator National Grid ESO and generators to optimise the use of power, and to minimise the cost of energy to consumers. Often the focus of energy modelling is on dealing with the everyday. In this article I explore three areas where a focus on extreme conditions is essential to maintain reliable, affordable and low-carbon energy services in our rapidly changing world. 

Dealing with new hazards for energy networks 

Extreme weather is increasing due to climate change, and these extreme events impact the energy network. There is evidence of a human contribution to changes in temperature extremes, heavy rainfall events, and an increase in extreme high sea levels in a number of regions of the world. This picture of increasing extremes is also true in the UK, where recent heat extremes in July 2022, and June 2023 have been linked to our changing climate. Rainfall extremes have also been linked to climate change, for example 3rd Oct 2020, the wettest UK day in a record dating back to 1891, and was found to be nearly three times as likely in the present day compared to pre-industrial times. These increasing extremes alone would be enough to tax our current energy infrastructure with an increased likelihood of over-heating and flooding.  

The energy transition increases this pressure. As an example, hot weather on traditional energy systems may cause sagging of overhead lines, and danger to maintenance crews or loss of productivity due to overheating. These risks have not diminished and new ones have emerged. Hot weather now increases the demand for energy via air-conditioning, a factor expected to increase as the climate warms. In the future this may be coupled with increased demand from electric vehicles, making summer a time of potential pinch points for balancing energy demand and generation. The hazards can be forecast, but how well do network and system operators understand the new risks and how to respond?  

Building a network to withstand our changing climate 

The energy transition is an engineering project on a massive scale – the impacts of climate change must be considered.  

When you imagine what it takes to transition our energy system you may think of construction new generation technologies, such as offshore wind turbines or new nuclear facilities, but this is only part of the challenge.  In the letter of June 2023, Nick Winser CBE the Governments Energy, “To deliver 50GW of wind power and 24GW of new nuclear will be a major step towards decarbonising our economy and providing customers with clean, secure, affordable electricity, but that magnificent achievement will be wasted if we cannot get the power to homes and businesses.” 

To achieve this transmission network operators must make enhancements and build new networks. Much of this work will be undertaken by the transmission network operator Scottish and Southern Electricity Networks - Transmission (SSEN), who have the role of connecting 27 GW, which will need to be connected to the network by 2030 and 50GW by 2050 from the sparsely populated east of Scotland, and bringing it south to population centres that will be using it. This is a massive engineering project. 

What was not discussed in Winser’s letter was the role of weather and climate in the design, build, and operation of transmission and distribution infrastructure. Aimed at ensuring efficient and safe networks, meteorological data is a part of many engineering standards. However, there is a problem - much of the data are out of date and the impact of climate change on these standards is not considered. This situation can lead to over engineering and slowing down the build process. The Met Office and SSEN have addressed this challenge together for some aspects of design and operation standards. This is a great step towards reducing cost and build times which will support our journey to Net Zero. What other standards need to be similarly updated to smooth the path to net zero and improve resilience? 

Matching a new demand picture with variable supply 

It’s a stereotype of UK life that we deal with a very variable climate. So how does that play out when our energy generation is reliant on the variable weather? A major consideration for government policy and advisors is how to create an energy system that is reliable despite this uncontrollable variability, especially during long periods when demand is high and generation low. What generation and storage technologies are needed to ensure power supplies during these periods. This is a very active area of research and great strides have been made in ensuring that problematic situations can be included in planning. However, there is still work to be done in adoption of suitable use of data that represents the full range of weather conditions that could cause problems for our future energy systems. How often is climate change included in these decisions? What other scenarios could tax the system? How to balance efficient performance in the day to day with an ability to ride out extremes of our climate? 

The Met Office is continuing to work across the energy sector directly and with partners to improve the understanding of weather and climate in the drive towards a clean energy future.