Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2021

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Dujuan (01W)

17-22 February 996mb, 40/40 knots Track forecast errors were mostly slightly above the recent mean values.
Surigae (02W) 13-24 April 895 mb, 165/120 knots Early forecasts had a right-of-track bias, but overall track forecast errors were below the recent mean values. An intense typhoon was predicted, although the extent of the rapid intensification was not forecast.
03W 12-14 May 1001 mb, 35/30 knots 03W was only briefly a tropical storm according to JTWC only and no forecasts were verified.
Choi-wan (04W) 29 May-05 June 998 mb, 50/40 knots A right-of-track bias resulted in track forecast errors above the recent mean values.
Koguma (05W) 12-13 June 996 mb, 35/35 knots Koguma was a short-lived storm and no forecasts were verified.
Champi (06W) 21-27 June 980 mb, 65/65 knots Track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values.
07W 04-06 July 1003 mb, 30/- knots 07W did not reached tropical storm status.
08W 07 July 1001 mb, 25/- knots 08W did not reached tropical storm status.
In-fa (09W) 16-27 July 955 mb, 95/80 knots Forecasts for In-fa were initially too fast and kept the storm on a continued westerly track instead of turning north. This resulted in large longer lead time errors. Short lead time errors were low.
Cempaka (10W) 18-23 July 990 mb, 75/50 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Nepartak (11W) 23-28 July 990 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were mostly a little above the recent mean values.
12W 02-06 August 995 mb, 30/- knots 12W did not achieve tropical storm status.
Lupit (13W) 02-09 August 976 mb, 55/45 knots There was a slow bias and a slight left-of-track bias which resulted in track forecast errors above the recent mean.
Mirinae (14W) 04-09 August 980 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were mostly very low for this storm.
Nida (15W) 04-07 August 992 mb, 55/50 knots Track forecasts were mostly good for Nida. Skill scores against CLIPER were very high.
Omais (16W) 10-23 August 994 mb, 50/50 knots Omais persisted for a long time as a tropical depression, but only had two brief spells as a tropical storm. Track errors were low.

North-west observed tracks in 2021

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Andres (01E)

09-11 May

1005 mb, 35 knots

Andres was only briefly a tropical storm and just one forecast was verified.

Blanca (02E) 30 May-04 June 998 mb, 50 knots Track errors were low for this storm.
Carlos (03E) 12-16 June 1000 mb, 45 knots Track errors were low for this storm.
Dolores (04E) 18-20 June 990 mb, 60 knots Just a small number of forecasts were verified for Dolores.
Enrique (05E) 24-30 June 975 mb, 80 knots There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts for Enrique.
Felicia (06E) 14-20 July 947 mb, 125 knots Track forecast errors were low for Felicia, although there was a slight left-of-track bias.
Guillermo (07E) 17-20 July 999 mb, 50 knots There was a slight left-of-track bias in forecasts for this short-lived storm.
Hilda (08E) 30 July-06 August 985 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but high at longer lead times due to a fast bias.
Ignacio (10E) 01-04 August 1004 mb, 35 knots Ignacio was very short-lived as a tropical storm.
Jimena (09E) 30 July-07 August 1005 mb, 35 knots Jimena was short-lived as a tropical storm. Track forecast errors were low.
Kevin (11E) 07-12 August 999 mb, 50 knots There was a fast and left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in larger than average track forecast errors at longer lead times.
Linda (12E) 10-20 August 950 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors for Linda were close to the recent mean values for this basin.
Marty (13L) 23-24 August 1001 mb, 40 knots Marty only briefly reached tropical storm status.
Nora (14E) 25-30 August 977 mb, 75 knots Nora turned right and accelerated towards the coast faster than predicted resulting in track forecast errors above the recent mean.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

 

   

 

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2021

Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Ana (01L)

22-24 May 1006 mb, 40 knots

Track forecast errors for Ana were near to the recent mean values.

Bill (02L) 14-16 June 998 mb, 50 knots Bill was a short-lived tropical storm.
Claudette (03L) 17-22 June 1004 mb, 40 knots Claudette became a tropical storm at landfall and then again after re-emerging over sea. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Danny (04L) 28-29 June 1013 mb, 35 knots Danny was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Elsa (05L) 30 June - 09 July 991 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to or below the recent mean, although there was a slow bias in forecasts.
Fred (06L) 09-17 August 994 mb, 55 knots Fred had two spells as a tropical storm. Short lead time errors were above the recent mean, but long lead time errors were low and the passage into the eastern Gulf of Mexico well predicted.
Grace (07L) 13-21 August 962 mb, 110 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to the recent mean. There was a slight left-of-track bias in landfall predictions. Also, early forecasts did not develop Grace quickly enough resulting in low detection percentages.
Henri (08L) 16-23 August 986 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were low for Henri and the turn northwards was well predicted.
Ida (09L) 26-30 August 929 mb, 130 knots There was a slight left-of-track and slow bias in forecasts, but track forecast errors were near to the recent mean.
Julian (11L) 29-30 August 998 mb, 50 knots Julian was a short-lived tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2021

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Tauktae (01A)

14-18 May 935 mb, 120/100 knots

An early forecast had a left-of-track bias meaning errors at the longest lead times were large, but mostly track forecast errors were low and landfall well predicted over two days in advance.

Yaas (02B) 24-26 May 974 mb, 65/70 knots Track forecast errors were very low and landfall well predicted by the model.

North Indian observed tracks in 2021

Tropical cyclone names

Mediterranean
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
       

Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.

Mediterranean observed tracks in 2021

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)


Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.