Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Recent slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity is likely to decline as the ongoing fast solar winds wane, but with a slight chance of glancing Coronal Mass Ejections prolonging these conditions. There is a chance of visible aurora at first over northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes where skies are clear, but this becoming less likely over the next few days.

Southern Hemisphere

Recent slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity is likely to decline as the ongoing fast solar winds wane, but with a slight chance of glancing Coronal Mass Ejections prolonging these conditions. There is a chance of visible aurora at first from the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes, but this becoming less likely over the next few days.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate flares likely. Chance of G1/Minor storms Day 1 (17 Feb).

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity is currently Low, with just Common-class flares in the last 24 hours. 

There are currently twelve sunspot regions on the visible disc. The three regions of most interest are near south centre disc and perhaps two regions in the southeast. The region near south centre disc consists of a large central spot surrounded by small peripheral spots, but with some minor magnetic complexity. One of the regions in the southeast is rotating into a better view, but so far appears to be relatively straightforward with any apparent complexity likely due to lingering foreshortening of the view near the limb. Oncoming regions in the southeast and in the northeast are both showing apparent growth, although some of this could be due to them rotating into a better view. A region in the southwest is also becoming more difficult to assess as it approaches the limb. All other spots appear relatively simple at the present time.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the past 24 hours. 

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a waning connection to a coronal hole fast wind. Wind speeds were elevated to strong, initially near 600 km/s but slowly declining to around 520 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained weak throughout, with the north-south component also weak and variable. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp 2-4).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was at background levels.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be Low to Moderate, with isolated M-class flares likely.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Several CMEs were observed leaving the Sun on February 14th and 15th. Confidence in all of these CMEs remains low, but there is a chance of glancing impacts between Days 1-3 (Feb 17–19). However, it is considered much more likely that these features will miss behind Earth's orbit. Coronal hole fast winds are starting to wane, and are expected to continue to decline through this period, likely to near background levels by Day 4 (20 Feb). 

Predominantly Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions are expected at first, with a chance of G1/Minor geomagnetic storm (Kp 5) intervals due to coronal hole influence or perhaps glancing CMEs. As wind speeds ease, so geomagnetic activity is expected to wane, with just a slight chance of any CME influence increasing geomagnetic activity again.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels are likely to persist at background levels, with a marginally increasing slight chance of rising above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold, as the current active regions move west.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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