Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Background aurora conditions most likely. Slight chance that from 21 Nov there might be some minor enhancement due to faster solar winds. Should this occur, then aurora may become visible across the far north of the UK and similar geomagnetic latitudes, where skies are clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Background aurora conditions most likely. Slight chance that from 21 Nov there might be some minor enhancement due to faster solar winds. Should this occur, then aurora may become visible across the extreme south of Tasmania and the South Island of New Zealand where skies are clear.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Faster solar winds solar winds bring a likelihood of enhanced geomagnetic activity at times.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate during the past 24 hours, with isolated Moderate flares.
There are currently eleven sunspot regions on the visible disc, four of which are unnumbered. The sunspot in the southwest limb is continuing to bring a flare risk as it rotates of the disc, meanwhile the spot in the southeast is continuing to show magnetic complexity. Otherwise the other regions are relatively small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours in available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:
Solar winds were predominantly at background level. The magnetic field of the solar wind was weak to moderate. The north-south component showed periods of weak positive and weak to moderate negative orientation. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: No solar radiation storms were observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected, with a daily chance of Moderate flares and a persistent slight chance of isolated Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: No Earth-directed CMEs currently feature in the forecast.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be dominated by enhancement from coronal holes. Solar winds are expected to be initially Slow-Ambient with speeds around 350-400km/s, with wind speeds increasing to Slightly Elevated, around 450-500km/s by the late afternoon and evening on Day 1 (21 Nov), continuing into Day 2 (22 Nov). Then increasing again by Day 4 (24 Nov).
Generally, Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3) conditions expected through much of the period, perhaps increasing through Day 1 and 2 (21-22 Nov) becoming Unsettled to Active (Kp 3-4) for a time, with a chance of G1 Minor Geomagnetic (Kp 5) Activity gradually waning on Day 3 (23 Nov), becoming mostly Quiet to Unsettled, with isolated Active intervals, especially at first. Geomagnetic activity increasing again by Day 4 (24 Nov).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation storms are not expected.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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