Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected at first with aurora sightings unlikely. Slight enhancements to the auroral oval are possible Sunday and Monday nights, with aurora visible at high latitudes where skies are clear, this most likely Sunday night.
Southern Hemisphere
No significant space weather activity is expected at first with aurora sightings unlikely. Slight enhancements to the auroral oval are possible during the southern hemisphere Sunday and Monday nights, with aurora visible at high latitudes where skies are clear, this most likely during Sunday night.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares. Possible glancing CME's day 3 (23 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with only occasional common class flares observed, the largest from a bipolar region approaching the west limb. There are seven sunspot numbered regions on the visible disc, and several small un-numbered regions. Most numbered regions on the visible disc are relatively small and simple, with little growth or development observed. However, two modestly sized regions near south-centre disc remain the most notable regions on the disc. Both have exhibited a slight increase in spot number or area, with the eastern-most showing a greater rate of development and having formed a more complex magnetic structure within a small intermediate spot group. Some new minor regions have emerged in the southwest and northeast quadrants, with the region in the northeast showing the greatest rate of growth of all of these regions. Also, small returning region has recently rotated from the northeast limb.
A filament was observed to lift off from the northeast, beginning around 21/0100UTC, with a clear north directed CME emerging soon after in coronagraph imagery. This has been modelled with results pending, however it is not expected to give any impacts. A filament was also observed to lift off from the southeast, beginning around 21/0500UTC, with a narrow, south directed CME observed. This has also been modelled with results pending, but similarly no impacts are anticipated at Earth.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed a steady decline from near 450km/s to 320km/s, indicating the declining influence of a previous coronal hole feature. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was Weak, with the north-south component also Weak, varying from positive (northward) until around 20/2100 UTC, then switching to mainly negative (southward). Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 0-1), apart from one Unsettled (Kp 3) interval 20/0000-0300 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Solar activity is forecast to be generally Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:
A CME followed a Common class flare at 19/2345 UTC from a now decayed region in the southwest, with modelling results indicating a chance of a glancing blow around the middle of the day (UTC) on day 3 (23 Feb). There is a lower chance of another CME brushing Earth on day 3, although earlier in the day, from weak flaring that occurred in the vicinity of a modestly sized bipolar region near centre disc at the time.
No significant solar wind enhancements are expected over the next few days, with a gradual easing trend within background levels expected. However, on day 3 (23 Feb) there is a chance of two glancing CME's as mentioned above. Late Day 4 (24th) a weak solar wind enhancement may occur associated with a small coronal hole feature in the northern hemisphere.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled intervals days 1 and 2 (21st and 22nd). Days 3 and 4 (23 and 24 Feb) activity may increase Unsettled to Active at times, with a chance on day 3 for an increase to Minor Storm levels due to a possible glancing CME's and a slight chance on day 4 with the possible arrival of a weak solar wind enhancement.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is forecast to persist at background levels.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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