Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain largely subdued. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) may give Earth a glancing blow 07-08 June, slightly enhancing the auroral oval with potential solar wind enhancements. Effects waning by 09 June. Any aurora is most likely to be confined to higher latitudes. In addition, viewing of the aurora will be restricted due to limited hours of darkness in the Northern Hemisphere at this time of year.

Southern Hemisphere

Geomagnetic activity is expected to be subdued through much of this period. Slight enhancements are possible with the potential for some solar wind enhancements, mainly due to the risk of a CME (coronal mass ejection) glancing blow on 07-08 June. Any aurora is most likely to be confined to higher latitudes however.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate flares (R1/Minor-R2/Moderate radio blackouts). Slight chance of a G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic storm due to CME effects 07-08 June.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, but with frequent Common-Class flares. There are a few large groups on the visible disc, the largest of and most complex of which is nearing centre disc. Another large region has now rotated across the western limb and is no longer visible. A newer region near the southeast limb is starting to reveal some complexity. The other regions appear to either be relatively small, simple, or both.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available imagery during the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have shown evidence of some slight disturbance. Wind speeds were initially ambient around 350 km/s, increasing around 05/0500 UTC to become slightly elevated with a peak of 463 km/s at 05/0803 UTC. Winds later declined to ambient levels around 05/1245 UTC, where they have remained on a downwards trend and are currently around 360 km/s. The total magnetic field has mainly been at moderate levels. The important north-south component, Bz, was initially negative, becoming mostly positive from 05/0545 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is at background levels with no solar radiation storms observed.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Solar activity is expected to remain generally Low but there is a chance of Moderate activity, and a slight chance of isolated Strong flares.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A filament lift-off starting around 04/0900UTC from the southwest produced a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). This is currently thought more likely to miss Earth, however a glancing blow is possible either late Day 2 or into Day 3 (07-08 June). Some potential transient CME effects have been observed in the past 24hrs and may continue into the start of Day 1 (06 June). Generally solar winds expected to remain at slow-ambient or slightly elevated levels. Perhaps seeing enhancement Day 2-3 should Earth experience any CME effects.

Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp0-3) with a slight chance of Active (Kp4) intervals on Day 1 (06 June), should we continue to see any transitory enhancement. Activity possibly increasing late Day 2 into Day 3 (07-08 June) should we see any CME effects, becoming more Unsettled with a chance of Active intervals and a slight chance of isolated G1-G2/Minor to Moderate Geomagnetic Storm intervals (Kp5-6).

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to be at background levels with solar radiation storms unlikely to occur. However, there is a slight but declining chance of reaching the S1/Minor Storm threshold should any larger flares occur.

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Solar imagery


This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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