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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Monday 3 Oct - Wednesday 12 Oct

A mixture of sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain is expected at the start of October. A northwest/southeast split in weather conditions is likely through the first half of next week, with cloud and occasionally heavy rain in the northwest, and drier conditions in the southeast. Winds generally light, but likely stronger in the northwest. Later in the period, we may see a shift towards drier and more settled weather. Some spells of wetter weather remain likely at times; these are most probable in the northwest but could possibly spread to other areas too. Temperatures likely to be close to average throughout or perhaps slightly above average by the end of the period.

Thursday 13 Oct - Thursday 27 Oct

Drier and more settled conditions are most likely at the start of the period, though some periods of wetter weather remain probable. Later in October, there is an increasing chance of unsettled conditions developing more widely across the UK for a time. Temperatures most likely to be near normal or slightly above normal.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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