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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Wednesday 24 Apr - Friday 3 May

This period will be dominated by high pressure to the northwest of the UK and lower pressure to the southeast over the near continent, and the extent to which either of these systems dominates at any particular time. The wind will probably therefore predominantly come from a northerly direction, so temperatures overall are likely to remain around or a little below average, with any warmer conditions will generally be further west - and near some eastern coasts it could feel quite cold at times. There should be a reasonable amount of dry weather around, especially in the north and west, but some rain or showers are likely at times, most-likely in the south and east at first, but with an increasing risk elsewhere towards early May.

Saturday 4 May - Saturday 18 May

In this period, the chances of unsettled weather are slightly less than usual in the north and about the same as usual further south. Therefore, some spells of wetter weather are likely for all, but perhaps especially southern areas at first with the driest conditions probably further north. Temperatures will probably near or a little below average at first, but likely to recover to around or a little above average through early-mid May. Also worth noting that average temperatures themselves rise by around 1C per week at this time of year.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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