Sea and cliffs
Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Amber warning

Amber weather warning in force for the UK

Thursday 28 Sep - Saturday 7 Oct

The end of September is likely to see a mixture of showers, periods of heavier rain and some brief, drier interludes. The wettest conditions are most probable across north-western areas and may be accompanied by spells of strong winds. Elsewhere, it is likely to be calmer, with eastern and south-eastern areas expected to see the best of any dry or bright spells, though this does not discount unsettled weather in these areas. Temperatures are likely close to, or slightly above average, with some mild nights. The changeable theme will likely continue into early October, with settled spells and periods of rain and showers, but there is a chance of a more prolonged period of settled weather, most probable in the southeast, which might also lead to some chillier nights.

Sunday 8 Oct - Sunday 22 Oct

Indications are for a continuation of the changeable conditions early in the period, with some dry and settled conditions interspersed with spells of rain and showers. Further into the month, there is a possibility that unsettled, wet weather may become more common, which could result in southern areas being wetter than usual for the time of year. Northern areas, however, may see slightly less rainfall than usual. It is likely that temperatures will be above average for October, though it may feel chilly overnight in any clear and settled conditions.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?

Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).