Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Monday 25 Nov - Wednesday 4 Dec
An unsettled start, with strong winds and some showers for many parts, these most frequent in the north. Temperatures easing back towards average for most places, but still mild in the southeast. The strong winds will make it feel rather cold though. It then looks like turning colder for all parts, with a return of wintry showers for a time, especially in the north. Conditions then look like settling down as high pressure briefly builds across the country, this bringing a risk of some stubborn fog patches as winds ease. It may turn unsettled and milder again later next week. Into December, high pressure may re-assert itself, with temperatures generally close to average, but some overnight frost is likely, and rather cold by day where any fog persists.
Thursday 5 Dec - Thursday 19 Dec
The start of this period looks like being largely settled, with high pressure close to if not over the UK. However. there is also a chance of more changeable weather patterns, which would see Atlantic weather systems periodically move across the country. These will bring some wetter and windier interludes with a risk of some snow, especially for hills in the north. These conditions look more likely to dominate towards the middle of December. Temperatures generally close to average through the period.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).