Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Wednesday 31 Jul - Friday 9 Aug
The end of July and into early August will typically be dominated by a northwest-southeast split. North-western areas will probably experience rather breezy conditions with cloud and some outbreaks of rain or drizzle as weakening Atlantic frontal systems attempt to push eastwards across the UK. Toward the south and east it will tend to be drier and brighter much of the time, although there is also the small possibility of some thundery showers spreading in from the nearby continent at times. Temperatures during this period will probably be close to or slightly above average overall, with the likelihood of some very warm conditions developing in the south and perhaps parts of the east at times.
Saturday 10 Aug - Saturday 24 Aug
No single weather type is expected to dominate through this period. Some spells of dry, settled weather will likely alternate with wetter, cloudier conditions at times. The wettest conditions will probably be in the northwest, with the southeast tending to be driest. Through the period as a whole, warmer than average conditions are more probable, perhaps with some short-lived hot spells.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).