Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Monday 20 Jan - Wednesday 29 Jan
The early part of next week will see fairly quiet, and for most, dry weather with variable amounts of cloud and often light winds. The greatest chance of any rain is likely to be in the far northwest of the UK, and possibly as well in the far south. There is a small chance rain could become more widespread, and temperatures are expected to be around average. Later in the week, periods of much wetter and windier weather will most likely eventually become more prevalent, from northwest to southeast. Ahead of this a colder, more settled southeasterly wind may develop for a time. There is a small chance however, that alternatively winds could turn much more easterly, and colder, bring the risk of snow showers.
Thursday 30 Jan - Thursday 13 Feb
A dominant flow from the Atlantic looks likely through this period, resulting in an unsettled, milder and windier than average period. This is likely to result in areas of rain and periods of stronger winds affecting most if not all parts of the UK at times, though with the wettest and windiest weather probably occurring towards the north and west. However, the potential for brief colder spells with associated frost, ice and snow remains, following any deep lows crossing the region.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).