Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Tuesday 4 Feb - Thursday 13 Feb
Periods of wet weather are likely to affect northwestern parts of the UK at times, particularly early in this period. Some heavy rain is possible and this is likely to be accompanied by spells of strong winds. South of this, across the rest of the UK, it is likely to be more settled and whilst some rain can't be ruled out at times, there is likely to be plenty of dry weather through this period. Winds will be lighter and this will bring the risk of overnight frost and fog. Overall, temperatures will be close to normal for most, but it is likely to be mild at times in the northwest. Brief colder spells are likely here in between weather systems though.
Friday 14 Feb - Friday 28 Feb
There are signs that there may be somewhat of a northwest-southeast split to the UK's weather through this period. The north or northwest is likely to bear the brunt of wet and windy spells, whilst towards the south or southeast, it may be drier and more settled. Some rain is still likely at times here though, as are brief drier spells further north. Temperatures will probably be close to average overall, but some milder spells are likely, especially in the north. Brief colder spells are likely in between weather systems though, and the south is likely to be at greatest risk of seeing some overnight frost and fog.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).