Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Saturday 20 Jul - Monday 29 Jul
Early in this period, low pressure is likely to exist to the northwest or north of the UK, allowing areas of cloud and rain to spread across the UK from the west, though some more settled interludes are also likely, especially in the southeast. Breezy at times, with temperatures mainly near or below normal. Remaining changeable thereafter as weather systems to move across the country from the west, with northern and western areas typically wettest and a greater chance of dry conditions prevailing in the southeast. There is, however, a smaller chance for either unsettled weather to be more widely prevalent, or for a more quiescent period to develop across the south. Overall, temperatures will likely be near normal, but may feel cool in the west at times.
Tuesday 30 Jul - Tuesday 13 Aug
Through this period, there remains a slightly increased chance of more settled spells of weather developing at times, particularly in the south, and the likelihood of this has been gradually increasing over the past few days. However, there is still a substantial chance of other outcomes too, with more changeable periods also likely. Overall drier than average conditions are more likely than wetter than average, and warmer than average conditions are weakly favoured too.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).